M3 – Hydrologic model: future water availability

Partner: IWW-MH in cooperation with UAF

Setting up a detailed hydrological model of the Lower Chenab Canal Area (LCC) in Pakistan will help to estimate changes in water availability due to shifting land use patterns, alternative crop management strategies, and potential climate change scenarios. It will be used to assess surface water availability for agriculture in the near and far future.  This information, which we generate using the physically based hydrological SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) model, will further be used by other project partners to estimate groundwater level declines and groundwater abstractions for irrigation purposes to generate a comprehensive picture of future water resources dynamics in the LCC area.

Current Results
The SWAT model has been set up after extensive data collection. Information on crop patterns and management strategies have been included and are represented explicitly by the model. We are currently working on a thorough model calibration to start model set-up for future climate change and land use change scenarios. A soft-coupling of the SWAT model with M4 groundwater model is under discussion.

Expected Outcome
M3 will be able to estimate the impacts of locally occurring environmental changes on future surface water availability in LCC.